Re: is x10.com dead?

["Robert Green" <ROBERT_GREEN1963@xxxxxxxxx>]

"Robert L Bass" <sales@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:fbn7v1ln67i11k7e0mk975qa3g6b0pm2mo@xxxxxxxxxx

<stuff snipped>

> Given the list of players backing Z-Wave, I'd give it a better
> chance of long-term success than anything other than X10.

I've seen "players lists" come and go like the seasons.  IIRC, the company
that created Bluetooth dropped the line recently.  Bluetooth turned out to
be the Comet Kohoutek of the 90's.  Today's alliance is no assurance of
success tomorrow.  Lots of big players backing both sides of the DVD format
wars.  Someone will win out in the end there as they will in HA.  In the
long run it's whatever standard that emerges that makes it possible to
control devices via relays and controls internal to the device, not through
dumb plug-in boxes like appliance modules.

> > All of those false starts from IBM and Stanley and Sears
> > were actually *good* for X-10 users because they added
> > to the widening world of X-10 as a universal HA protocol.
>
> True indeed.  The following is taken from ZenSys' website.
>
> "The Z-Wave? Alliance Group consists of committed Zensys partners
> with products in the market or in development. This group of
> companies has come together to ensure interoperability for
> Z-Wave? enabled products, and to promote joint marketing
> opportunities."

I give it the same chance I give the EU.  :-)

> "The Z-Wave Alliance has over 70 members, all of whom are working
> on bringing Z-Wave based products to market. This Alliance
> includes a number of former and current ZigBee members who have
> chosen to base their residential control systems on Z-Wave."

The fact the their ranks includes defectors from last year's "standard"
doesn't bode well for their future loyalty.  No manufacturer really believes
that interoperability is good for their bottom line.  They all want to be
the ones collecting the royalty payments as soon as they have something they
think will differentiate themselves from the pack, we'll have Zwave-G and
Zwave-QuadShield and Monster Cable Zwave inductors and extra-range
MegaZwave.

Remember the good old days of X-modem, Y-Modem and all the other dowload
protocols used with modems?  I wonder who will be the first to create a
"flavor" of Zwave that works only with their equipment.

> I think it's significant that several former ZigBee supporters
> have switched to Z-Wave.

I think it shows these alliances are ephemeral and that members change their
loyalties with the first strong wind!

> > What will happen next in HA is just what happened with
> > video tape formats.  In a world of cheap VHS and better
> > but shorter and more expensive Beta the forces of
> > competition inexorably grind *someone* down.
>
> Yes, that is true.  It's the same reason that some retailers in
> the trade have lasted whereas many others have not.  You market
> your products best or someone else will.  However, there are a
> lot more companies behind Z-Wave even at this early stage than
> there were backing VHS when it dealt the death blow to Beta.

VHS was a big ticket consumer item - it's not necessarily comparable to HA
in that respect although it illustrated the basic point that companies will
only cooperate when doing so would be cheaper than paying royalties to a
*hated* competitor.  It took a household name like IBM to make personal
computing legitimate for the average home user.  I don't know if any company
has the same sort of clout in appliance manufacturing.

> > I'd say we're in the "MacCharlie" stage of home automation
> > as compared to PCs revolution - still a few more years to go
> > to see which of the many protocols floating around now
> > becomes the standard.  I'm betting on Insteon because they
> > are following the very successful model MS used to gain
> > dominance in word processing from Wordstar:  They are
> > creating the easiest migration path possible for the owners
> > of competing equipment with their built-in X-10 translation.
>
> That's a major point in their favor from a marketing standpoint.
> What they lack is widespread support, both financial and
> technical, from significant players.

X-10 made it without such support.  I don't think you should underestimate
Smarthome.  Their catalog gets fatter and fatter and seems to come more and
more often.  They've carved out a pretty big niche for themselves in the HA
world - sort of like Land's End or LL Bean.  And they are factoring in the
installed base of X-10 equipment in HA land - which no one else seems
interested in doing.  I think that's a colossal mistake.  Too bad it's
entirely in keeping with the NIH syndrome.

> > All that's often needed to leapfrog the competition is a very
> > small edge and from what I can see, Insteon's got it.
>
> I have somewhat less confidence in the manufacturer than you.
> They've not built the kind of QC record I'd want to see before I
> invest my own HA controls in their products.

It remains to be seen.  Any new rollout is troublesome.  I think they'll
survive - there seems to be much less squawking about their QC in recent
years here in CHA.

> In truth, though I believe that Z-Wave is going to be the best
> horse I haven't actually placed my bet yet.  I'm not carrying
> Z-Wave or Insteon at this point.  When the line is more complete
> and distribution more robust, I'll probably offer Z-Wave.  For
> the time being I've been referring Z-Wave sales to an online
> competitor who posts here.  The gentleman seems honest and his
> business could use a hand now and then.

Yeah - getting stuck with a load of Zwave inventory if they go south would
not be good!

--
Bobby G.