Re: is x10.com dead?

["Robert Green" <ROBERT_GREEN1963@xxxxxxxxx>]

"Robert L Bass" <sales@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

<stuff snipped>

> I feel that Zwave is an acceptable alternative.  Like Radio RA,
> it is still missing a few desirable features.  Unlike X10, it
> works reliably and failure rates are quite low.  It's
> significantly less than the cost of RA though more than twice the
> cost of X10.

What happens if Zwave dies?  There are a lot of competing protocols suddenly
appearing on the market.  History says they won't all live.  One thing we
know for sure about HA is that it's an ever-expanding "hobby."  Heavily
invest in Zwave or UPB or Control4 Insteon or Lutron RA and there's always
the non-zero and perhaps substantial risk that you'll be orphaned.

All of those false starts from IBM and Stanley and Sears were actually
*good* for X-10 users because they added to the widening world of X-10 as a
universal HA protocol.  What will happen next in HA is just what happened
with video tape formats.  In a world of cheap VHS and better but shorter and
more expensive Beta the forces of competition inexorably grind *someone*
down.

That's going to happen in the HA arena the same as it does for airlines and
PC companies.   I'll bet there are at least a few managers of these product
lines that expected far greater initial sales than they've seen.  When the
honchos in accounting decide that the venture isn't likely to be
profitable - and that seems to take less and less time for big companies to
decide in recent years - down the tubes will go Protocol X.  That's when its
adherents will begin shopping for a new HA system.

I'd say we're in the "MacCharlie" stage of home automation as compared to
PCs revolution - still a few more years to go to see which of the many
protocols floating around now becomes the standard.  I'm betting on Insteon
because they are following the very successful model MS used to gain
dominance in word processing from Wordstar:  They are creating the easiest
migration path possible for the owners of competing equipment with their
built-in X-10 translation.  All that's often needed to leapfrog the
competition is a very small edge and from what I can see, Insteon's got it.

--
Bobby G.