Re: is x10.com dead?

[Robert L Bass <sales@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

> What happens if Zwave dies?

The same thing that will happen if Lutron dies or if they decide
to drop the Radio RA line.  The difference is that there is one
company making Radio Ra -- Lutron.  There are scores of major
players backing Z-Wave.

> There are a lot of competing protocols suddenly
> appearing on the market.  History says they won't all live.

Odds are X10 will be around for a long time.  Even if X10 company
dies, there are numerous other firms making X10 compatible
hardware.  Lutron could simply decide to drop the line and that
would be the end of that.

> One thing we know for sure about HA is that it's an
> ever-expanding "hobby."

For me it's a hobby that turned into a business.  :^)

> Heavily invest in Zwave or UPB or Control4 Insteon or
> Lutron RA and there's always the non-zero and perhaps
> substantial risk that you'll be orphaned.

Given the list of players backing Z-Wave, I'd give it a better
chance of long-term success than anything other than X10.

> All of those false starts from IBM and Stanley and Sears
> were actually *good* for X-10 users because they added
> to the widening world of X-10 as a universal HA protocol.

True indeed.  The following is taken from ZenSys' website.

"The Z-Wave? Alliance Group consists of committed Zensys partners
with products in the market or in development. This group of
companies has come together to ensure interoperability for
Z-Wave? enabled products, and to promote joint marketing
opportunities."

"The Z-Wave Alliance has over 70 members, all of whom are working
on bringing Z-Wave based products to market. This Alliance
includes a number of former and current ZigBee members who have
chosen to base their residential control systems on Z-Wave."

I think it's significant that several former ZigBee supporters
have switched to Z-Wave.

> What will happen next in HA is just what happened with
> video tape formats.  In a world of cheap VHS and better
> but shorter and more expensive Beta the forces of
> competition inexorably grind *someone* down.

Yes, that is true.  It's the same reason that some retailers in
the trade have lasted whereas many others have not.  You market
your products best or someone else will.  However, there are a
lot more companies behind Z-Wave even at this early stage than
there were backing VHS when it dealt the death blow to Beta.

> I'd say we're in the "MacCharlie" stage of home automation
> as compared to PCs revolution - still a few more years to go
> to see which of the many protocols floating around now
> becomes the standard.  I'm betting on Insteon because they
> are following the very successful model MS used to gain
> dominance in word processing from Wordstar:  They are
> creating the easiest migration path possible for the owners
> of competing equipment with their built-in X-10 translation.

That's a major point in their favor from a marketing standpoint.
What they lack is widespread support, both financial and
technical, from significant players.

> All that's often needed to leapfrog the competition is a very
> small edge and from what I can see, Insteon's got it.

I have somewhat less confidence in the manufacturer than you.
They've not built the kind of QC record I'd want to see before I
invest my own HA controls in their products.

In truth, though I believe that Z-Wave is going to be the best
horse I haven't actually placed my bet yet.  I'm not carrying
Z-Wave or Insteon at this point.  When the line is more complete
and distribution more robust, I'll probably offer Z-Wave.  For
the time being I've been referring Z-Wave sales to an online
competitor who posts here.  The gentleman seems honest and his
business could use a hand now and then.

--

Regards,
Robert L Bass

Bass Burglar Alarms
The Online DIY Store
http://www.BassBurglarAlarms.com

--

Never underestimate the power of very stupid people in large
groups.