Re: is x10.com dead?

["Robert Green" <ROBERT_GREEN1963@xxxxxxxxx>]

"Robert L Bass" <sales@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:n81qv1lhrr6hh62sjnjtq4p9k963kri8hl@xxxxxxxxxx
> > I've seen "players lists" come and go like the seasons.  IIRC, the
company*
> > that created Bluetooth dropped the line recently.  Bluetooth turned out
to
> > be the Comet Kohoutek of the 90's.  Today's alliance is no assurance of
> > success tomorrow.
>
> You're quite right there, Robert.  My point is that in trying to
> predict the future the odds are better for a protocol that has
> the backing of a large number of significant players.

In today's NYT they talk about "standards defections" in an article at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/26/business/26disks.html

"In Sony's Stumble, the Ghost of Betamax" (registration required :-( )

The article talks about how Microsoft has just defected from Sony's BluRay
format to join the Toshiba HD-DVD camp:

"But two unexpected and little-noticed decisions by the Blu-ray group last
spring managed to alienate Microsoft and ultimately revive Toshiba's sagging
fortunes.

First, Sony and the Blu-ray group adopted a Java program for interactive
features. Microsoft favored a rival called iHD because, among other things,
it would work better with its new Vista operating system. The Blu-ray
group's board also approved an encryption technology called BD+, which Mr.
Majidimehr, Microsoft's vice president for Windows digital media, deemed
superfluous."

Their defection has in turn caused a shift in the loyalties of the smaller
players who don't want to pay Sony's software fees (apparently much higher
than HD-DVD) and who are spooked by delays and technical problems that Sony
is experiencing.  I'm sort of dubious about cramming 30 gigs onto a plastic
platter without a protective cartridge myself.  I don't think Sony has
enough 3-year-olds in their product testing labs.

I'm not sure how well this battle of giants mirrors the battle of pygmies
that is the HA standards war, but I suspect that there will be similar
defections from Z-Wave whenever someone in some committee does something
that a major player takes offense to.  It was time for something to supplant
X-10 - that much seems to be agreed on.  I'm betting on Insteon because they
offer a migration path from today's defacto standard, X-10.  That's why I am
also betting on HD-DVD:  their players will play old DVD's as well as HDs.
As soon as the two hit the real market Sony will be either forced to add
compatibility electronics to play old DVDs or they will crash and burn.  If
there's anything PCs have taught me it's how important having a "migration
path" is to sustaining continuous growth in the industry.

Interestingly enough, the article also mentions how Sony, the inventor of
the Walkman, got its lunch eaten in a big way by the Apple I-Pod.  Sony used
to be one of the great innovators - at one time they would continually
release products  that were "must have" and that no one else made.  Now
they've lost their focus and have become a conglomerate with a music company
that, IIRC, once paid Michael Jackson $1B.  The music division promotes so
many internecine rivalaries they've had to bring a knighted Brit on board to
straighten things out.  They're trying hard to recapture the image of
innovation they were once known for with the new BluRay technology, but I
think they're going to go hungry again.

And the beat goes on, the beat goes on . . .

--
Bobby G.