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Re: Timely message to all
On 3/22/2020 4:29 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
> I hope everyone is doing ok.
> I'm still going out and working on 2 new construction installations that are in progress and doing service calls, but keeping my distance from other workers which are few. I'm arriving on the job at 3 to 4 PM and working into the evening till 9 10 PM which pretty much leaves me alone on the job with no one else to come in contact with.
> Service calls seem less than usual so I have to assume it's because of the Virus slowdown. Only did two in the last few days and only have two scheduled for next week so far. One of them the people went to their house in the woods in Pennsylvania, so their house here will be empty for me to work in. The other is someone new to the area moving into one of my old customers condo, so I'm thinking they're kind of skittish about the new area and want protection more than being concerned about me coming into their personal space.
> Most people I've spoken to don't seem that concerned over the situation but they're taking normal precautions. Some are working at home. Some are working reduced hours. I went out on two estimates last week but I'm thinking that it will probably be an extended period of time before they get back to me. I've got my existing new construction jobs to keep me busy for awhile but I expect a slowdown in the future as a result of people being out of work etc.
> I've got some money owed to me but not enough to hamper paying my bills (yet)
> this month and probably next month
> So we'll see what happens over the next few weeks.
> I'm wondering if any of the small business assistance from the government will be available to me if things get worse to a point that I can't pay my bills. I'm only a one man company so I don't know how this is going to work and if I'll comply with the requirements.
> How's everyone else doing?
Different industry, but its mixed. I ordered some raw materials from a
new vendor over the weekend and they shipped on Monday. A little more
expensive than my regular material vendor, but quite a bit faster than
their 3-5 days to prep and ship orders. I ordered the exact same order
from both vendors on Saturday. The cheaper one hasn't shipped, but
that's normal for them. Anyway, its good to know I can still order
stock as I need it instead of having to stock up more than I usually do.
My other main vendors all shipped weekend orders on Monday. I was
more worried about supply side until yesterday. It could of course
still get worse, but I think saner minds will prevail over the total
"sky is falling" that the media wants us to believe.
On the sales side I've had from 2 to 6 months backlog of work for a few
years at any given time. I try to keep it down to around 2, but when
you get big orders its hard to turn down the money. I'm down to just a
few weeks backlog of work, and part of that is waiting on specialty
tools for special jobs. Its a little worrisome, but I can always create
a new product and generate a few sales if stock and custom work remains
down. I've mentioned products I am working on to a couple customers
that were met with enthusiasm. If it gets slower it just means more
time to develop and test prototypes. New products always generate a few
Last week had a positive blip with a lot of small sales on "stock"
designs. I figure a lot of guys are stuck at home so they were bored
and ordered stuff.
Remember that vendor I mentioned that shipped stock right away. They
called me this morning to sound me out about doing some of their
machining work. They tried to sound up beat by saying about 80% of the
shops they work with are still going, but that told me that 20% of the
shops they work with aren't. I hope their employees have jobs to come
back to when its all over.
It might get tough, but unless we have actual deaths in the family we
will be fine.
As of this morning we have seen a death rate of confirmed cases of about
1.2% in the USA per the CDC. This is with a virus for which there is no
vaccine. Its no worse than a modestly bad contemporary flu year. I get
it if its one of yours that is one of that 1.2%, but I don't see any
reason for the mass hysteria. That's 1.2% of CONFIRMED cases. Not 1.2%
of the population. Far below the CDCs own published threshold for the
"pandemic" they are pushing. The damage to the economy already done is
far worse than anything from COVID-19 so far. The economic damage could
get far worse. We are much closer to a world wide economic tipping
point than we were after the 05/06 crash.
Anyway I am not overly worried, but of those things i spend some time
worrying about the economic fallout concerns me far more than this
strain of Corona Virus.
I hope you all are well and take realistic steps towards the future.
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