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Re: Timely message to all
"Bob La Londe" <firstname.lastname@example.org> wrote in message
> On 3/22/2020 4:29 PM, Jim Davis wrote:
>> I hope everyone is doing ok.
>> I'm still going out and working on 2 new construction installations that
>> are in progress and doing service calls, but keeping my distance from
>> other workers which are few. I'm arriving on the job at 3 to 4 PM and
>> working into the evening till 9 10 PM which pretty much leaves me alone
>> on the job with no one else to come in contact with.
>> Service calls seem less than usual so I have to assume it's because of
>> the Virus slowdown. Only did two in the last few days and only have two
>> scheduled for next week so far. One of them the people went to their
>> house in the woods in Pennsylvania, so their house here will be empty for
>> me to work in. The other is someone new to the area moving into one of my
>> old customers condo, so I'm thinking they're kind of skittish about the
>> new area and want protection more than being concerned about me coming
>> into their personal space.
>> Most people I've spoken to don't seem that concerned over the situation
>> but they're taking normal precautions. Some are working at home. Some are
>> working reduced hours. I went out on two estimates last week but I'm
>> thinking that it will probably be an extended period of time before they
>> get back to me. I've got my existing new construction jobs to keep me
>> busy for awhile but I expect a slowdown in the future as a result of
>> people being out of work etc.
>> I've got some money owed to me but not enough to hamper paying my bills
>> this month and probably next month
>> So we'll see what happens over the next few weeks.
>> I'm wondering if any of the small business assistance from the government
>> will be available to me if things get worse to a point that I can't pay
>> my bills. I'm only a one man company so I don't know how this is going to
>> work and if I'll comply with the requirements.
>> How's everyone else doing?
> Different industry, but its mixed. I ordered some raw materials from a
> new vendor over the weekend and they shipped on Monday. A little more
> expensive than my regular material vendor, but quite a bit faster than
> their 3-5 days to prep and ship orders. I ordered the exact same order
> from both vendors on Saturday. The cheaper one hasn't shipped, but that's
> normal for them. Anyway, its good to know I can still order stock as I
> need it instead of having to stock up more than I usually do. My other
> main vendors all shipped weekend orders on Monday. I was more worried
> about supply side until yesterday. It could of course still get worse,
> but I think saner minds will prevail over the total "sky is falling" that
> the media wants us to believe.
> On the sales side I've had from 2 to 6 months backlog of work for a few
> years at any given time. I try to keep it down to around 2, but when you
> get big orders its hard to turn down the money. I'm down to just a few
> weeks backlog of work, and part of that is waiting on specialty tools for
> special jobs. Its a little worrisome, but I can always create a new
> product and generate a few sales if stock and custom work remains down.
> I've mentioned products I am working on to a couple customers that were
> met with enthusiasm. If it gets slower it just means more time to develop
> and test prototypes. New products always generate a few sales.
> Last week had a positive blip with a lot of small sales on "stock"
> designs. I figure a lot of guys are stuck at home so they were bored and
> ordered stuff.
> Remember that vendor I mentioned that shipped stock right away. They
> called me this morning to sound me out about doing some of their machining
> work. They tried to sound up beat by saying about 80% of the shops they
> work with are still going, but that told me that 20% of the shops they
> work with aren't. I hope their employees have jobs to come back to when
> its all over.
> It might get tough, but unless we have actual deaths in the family we will
> be fine.
> As of this morning we have seen a death rate of confirmed cases of about
> 1.2% in the USA per the CDC. This is with a virus for which there is no
> vaccine. Its no worse than a modestly bad contemporary flu year. I get
> it if its one of yours that is one of that 1.2%, but I don't see any
> reason for the mass hysteria. That's 1.2% of CONFIRMED cases. Not 1.2% of
> the population. Far below the CDCs own published threshold for the
> "pandemic" they are pushing. The damage to the economy already done is
> far worse than anything from COVID-19 so far. The economic damage could
> get far worse. We are much closer to a world wide economic tipping point
> than we were after the 05/06 crash.
> Anyway I am not overly worried, but of those things i spend some time
> worrying about the economic fallout concerns me far more than this strain
> of Corona Virus.
> I hope you all are well and take realistic steps towards the future.
The mortality rate of flu is normally about 0.1% of those infected.
The global mortality rate of Covid-19 is somewhere around 3.4% of those
infected according to WHO
The mortality rate in the US might be a low as 1.2% at the moment, I'll take
your word for it since I couldn't find a figure from the CDC today. But even
if the US rate stays at 1.2% that's still 12 times higher than flu
Covid-19 is far more infectious than flu and since its a brand new
coronavirus there is little or no immunity to it and unlike the flu there is
no vaccine for it, so left unchecked many more people will be infected than
in a flu season.
So even if the mortality rate stays at around 1.2% of infections, which I
doubt, the sheer number of people infected likely to get infected with
covid-19 means the mortality rate of the population as a whole will be much
higher than with a "regular" flu season.
I get it, that the damage to the economy is immense and many small and large
business's may not make it.
You pay your money, you take your choice.
I'll put my money on the scientists, not the politicians.
I too hope that everyone stays well and that I am wrong in my interpretation
of the current situation.
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