Re: Need help for Engineering Management project

["Robert Green" <ROBERT_GREEN1963@xxxxxxxxx>]

<clay.maffett@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1174080672.360267.96840@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Hello everyone,
>     I am a sophomore at Vanderbilt University taking a class called
> Engineering Management 221.  Its major focus is the cumulative
> development of a Technology Strategy Assessment for a frontier-level
> technology (such as wireless power, OLED, holographic data storage,
> etc).  My group's chosen technology, as you might have guessed, is
> home automation.

Unfortunately, most of home automation is no longer "frontier" technology.
At least *I* wouldn't classify it as equivalent to the three other
technologies you've mentioned.  It's probably too late to change, but I
would have chosen something like digital paper, automatic car parking
computers found in some newer cars, home robotics like Roomba, GPS enabled
camera phones or *something* that hasn't been around
for almost thirty years!

> More specifically, we are developing a business
> platform around an imaginary Apple Inc. product line called iBode.  We
> know that it might be far-fetched for Apple to jump into the smart
> home market, but in many ways they already have: they in some forms
> dominate the "digital lifestyle" market with the iPod and "cool"
> computing hardware and OS; with the apple tv and iPhone, their
> prevalence in this market will grow; they maintain the ability to seem
> ahead of the competition.

There are a number of home automation programs written specifically for
Macs.  While I agree that Apple has marketing savvy that others lack (Sony
really invented portable music with their Walkman but let Apple's IPod
quite thoroughly eat their lunch).  In my mind, the most important thing
about Apple to consider is their ability to make technical stuff
"accessible" to non-techies.  Perhaps they can bring that skill to the home
automation market, but HA doesn't really seem to be a fit for their style.
They appear to be interested in monolithic devices like Ibooks, Ipods and
Iphones.  An Ibode would entail lots and lots of little devices and a big
primary controller.  Clearly not their style.

>  We decided the iBode would essentially be a modified Mac Pro that
> would serve as the command hub for the rest of the home network.  It
> would most likely be based around a modified (OSX-friendly) X10
> protocol, so as to lessen compatibility issues.  We have also
> seriously entertained the idea of Apple partnering with or buying
> Insteon.  Our belief is that home automation is not a frontier
> technology, it is an existing and refined technology that has simply
> not reached your everyday Joe.

There you have it, in your own words:  "Our belief is that home automation
is not a frontier technology."  Oddly enough, it's not a refined technology,
either.

The Zwave standard already has split into two very early in the game, with
new devices able to make 8 hops instead of 4.  That enhancement could easily
lead an
observer to conclude that the first specification was not working as well as
it should in the real world.  As the RF spectrum and the powerlines become
noisier and noisier, we can expect to see more "corrections" to HA protocols
instead of less.

Jeff Volp has enhanced the 25+ year old X-10 technology to produce a
far stronger signal than stock X-10 devices, which worked fine when they
were first designed but suffer from increasing interference from other AC
devices.  Who knows what sort of similar problems current HA technologies
will face 20 years from now?  One thing's for sure.  We'll be seeing more
transmitters, not fewer, 20 years from now as the world depends more and
more on wireless gadgets.

> Apple's reputation, creativity, and
> marketing machine could remedy this inexposure. for how we could
> approach our technology strategy

I don't think even Apple can create a demand in this market for a lot of
reasons.  I think the primary one is the violation of the "simplicity ethic"
they seem to exploit so well.  Very few HA lighting control systems can be
installed "out of the box" without fairly good electrical skills or the help
of an electrician.  They market no other products that have such
requirements, as far as I know.  I suspect they are lacking in the kind of
technical support a home automation system needs.  The final problem facing
them is that the construction of an average human abode can range from the
country cottage to the city hi-rise to the concrete buildings of the
hurricane zone.  That's just too varied an environment to market a
monolithic product to and expect it to work in all situations.

>     So what I ask of all of you here in this Google Group is, quite
> broadly, what do you think of the idea?  How practical is the
> implementation of such an iBode system?  What do you think are the
> biggest potential problems we might encounter?  Do you have any new
> ideas for how to approach our Technology Strategy that we might have
> overlooked?  Any help will be greatly appreciated.  Thanks in advance,

We ain't no stinkin' Google Group, although you did reach us from there! (-:
First off, forget X-10.  It's not only NOT a frontier technology, it's
pretty much getting close to being an obsolete technology.  Concentrate on
the new mesh network technologies like Zigbee and Z-wave.  They may be the
way of the future, but only the future can tell for sure.  The most
interesting aspect of HA right now is how many competing new technologies
have appeared in such a short time frame.  I don't believe there's room for
all of the currently marketed technologies to survive.  I'd be impressed if
your group analyzed the various HA topologies and picked the winners and
losers-to-be.

Good luck, Clay and sorry for the rough introduction!

--
Bobby G.