Re: Commercial Alarm - help

[Nomen Nescio <nobody@xxxxxxxxx>]

J. Sloud said:

>See above.  The 99% failure rate is accurate when comparing legitimate
>alarm signals to total alrm signals over a given time period.
>Obviously, the number would be much lower comparing number of alarms
>that false to toal alrms installed.  I've never argued this.

NO, IT ISN'T ACCURATE!  I don't expect you'll respond to this post, any
more than you've responded to any of my previous ones.  But I just can't
let you keep spreading bullshit, because some other mathematically
challenged individual might actually believe you.

If there are 10,000 false alarms and only 100 actual burglaries, what is
your so-called "failure rate?"  99%.

If there are only 5,000 false alarms and 100 actual burglaries, what is
your "failure rate?"  98%  False alarms were reduced by 5,000, but your
"failure rate" only improved by 1%.

If there are only 2500 false alarms and 100 actual burglaries, your
"failure rate" is 96%.

If there are only 1000 false alarms and 100 actual burglaries, that figure
is 91%.  A 90% reduction in false alarms translates to an 8% reduction in
the "failure rate."

Oh, but wait -- suppose the number of false alarms remains at 1000, but the
number of actual burglaries doubles.  Nothing the alarm companies can do
about that, right?  Your so-called "failure rate" just went down to 83%.
Boy, those alarm companies sure are making progress in the battle against
false alarms, right?

And suppose the number of false alarms stays at 1000, but the number of
burglaries drops to 50.  Nothing the alarm companies can do about that
either, right?  Your "failure rate" just shot up to 95%.  Look at these two
examples together:  the number of false alarms remains the same, but the
"failure rate" could be anywhere from 83% to 95%, depending solely on the
number of burglaries.

Actually, the "failure rate" could be any percentage you like, even though
the number of false alarms remains at 1000.  If there are 10 burglaries,
the percentage is 99%.  If there are 100 burglaries, the percentage is 91%.
If there are 1000 burglaries, the percentage is 50%.  That must mean the
alarm companies are doing a hell of a job on false alarms, huh?  The more
burglaries, the lower your "failure rate" is.

Beginning to see what bullshit this "failure rate" of yours is?

- badenov