Re: Commercial Alarm - help

[Nomen Nescio <nobody@xxxxxxxxx>]

Jackcsg said:

>So you don't need a factual number to start with, you just need to know
>math?
>Sounds like a theory to me.
>
>> If you don't believe my numbers are correct, then get out your calculator
>> and plug in your own numbers.  You'll prove it to yourself in short order.
>> Forgive me for quoting Bass, but "this isn't rocket science."
>
>I have the numbers...and you are correct. You don't have to be a rocket
>scientist...
>But you do have to know where to go to understand it. You're dictating a
>perception, and your personal theory here. I haven't seen a factual piece of
>anything that says otherwise.

Perhaps you and I are discussing two different points.  I am saying that
the statistic about 99% of alarms being false is a deceptive, misleading,
and unfair measure of alarm system performance.  The reasons I make that
claim are:

1.  That percentage depends almost entirely on the number of burglary
attempts at locations with alarms, something totally beyond the alam
company's control.  For example, the percentage can be 100% (if there are
zero burglary attempts at locations with alarms), or it can be 50% (if the
number of burglaries equals the number of false alarms).  Or it can be any
number inbetween, even if the number of false alarms remains constant.

2.  A drastic reduction in the number of false alarms has an insignificant
effect on that percentage.  But increasing the number of burglaries will
reduce the percentage of false alarms.

3.  The percentage will always be 100%, until a burglar starts committing
crimes.  Most people would consider zero burglaries a good thing, but zero
burglaries means all alarms are false alarms.  That's true whether there is
one false alarm or 10,000.

All of these points are based on simple arithmetic.  They're not a theory.
The actual numbers of false alarms and burglary attempts don't affect the
results, but if you like, use the numbers from your own city and do the
math.  There is no interpretation of the results possible, because the
results of addition and division don't depend on interpretations.

If there is some part of this that isn't making sense to you, tell me what
part, and I'll try to explain further.  If we're discussing different
issues, then I don't understand what you're getting at, and you can explain
your point to me in greater detail.

- badenov