From "The Times" yesterday...

["Mark McCall" <lists@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

"Computerised systems for monitoring and controlling energy use
and
preventing waste will also be much more attractive; all those seemingly
pointless "smart home" and remote monitoring systems I've seen
over the
years may finally have a point...."

http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4105731.ece

Or

http://tinyurl.com/59xe2m


Full Text....

Rising fuel prices: a high-tech opportunity

As the oil price rises, consumers will be forced to make decisions about
the
gadgets and services they use
Jonathan Weber, in Missoula, Montana

For all the hard labour that goes into economics research, it hasn't
produced very convincing answers for what people will pay for and what they
won't. People will pay several dollars for a ringtone, but they won't pay
the same amount for a plain old song. They'll pay a few hundred dollars a
year for a print newspaper subscription, but they won't pay anything for
the
same information on the internet. For every person who's paying $10 a year
for our new quarterly print magazine, about 50 prefer to fill out a
detailed
questionnaire and get the publication free.

At the same time, there are some spending decisions you can count on, and
one of them has to do with the price of energy. When the price goes up,
consumption goes down. And if we're now entering an era where energy, in
general, is going to be much more expensive, that's going to be a driving
force for the economy - and for technology - for some time to come.

Among the most obvious impacts will be continuing interest in alternative
fuel technologies and energy conservation. Hybrid cars, wind power, solar
power, ethanol, and clean coal technologies - all of which have over the
past several years drawn unprecedented interest from investors - will
benefit from high oil prices. Indeed, anticipation of such prices was a key
part of the model for venture capitalists investing in the sector.

Computerised systems for monitoring and controlling energy use and
preventing waste will also be much more attractive; all those seemingly
pointless "smart home" and remote monitoring systems I've seen
over the
years may finally have a point.


The secondary impacts will be just as important. High airfares resulting
from high fuel prices will result in less air travel, and perhaps an
increase in videoconferencing. Online retailers could benefit as people
seek
to avoid trips to the store (though shipping costs, especially for heavier
items, might tend to cut the other way, as will the rising cost of running
the big, electricity-hungry server farms that power e-commerce).

Already, in the US at least, more people are taking buses and trains, which
will lead to more investment in public transit infrastructure. Train travel
could even make a comeback in the US, although that will require very high
prices for a very long time. The maglev and other new train technologies
still won't go anywhere, in my opinion, but there is a ton of mileage to be
gained with upgrades of existing infrastructure.

High fuel costs could lead to basic changes in the way communities are
organised, making it more expensive to live on the fringes of town and thus
discouraging sprawl development. Cities - the bigger the better - tend to
be
much more energy-efficient, for obvious reasons, and thus they're likely to
be even more attractive for businesses and residents alike. Already there
are clear indications that fuel costs are hitting rural areas (like ours)
harder.

Disruptive change is always good for innovation; it creates problems that
need solutions. The internet, since it involves moving electrons rather
than
people or physical goods, is relatively insensitive to energy costs, and
thus the direct negative impacts of the energy price spike on internet
businesses are minimal. The costs of running a computer or a video game are
just a tiny fraction of the costs for running a car to take you to the
movies or an arcade.

That said, a general economic downturn will without question have a
negative
impact on the tech and internet sectors. That iPhone, even at $200, might
have to wait a year. Apple, which is in a very positive product cycle, may
suffer less than most, but we're only beginning to feel the impact of the
energy situation, both on consumption and on innovation. How these two
forces intersect will have a lot to do with the fate of high-tech for some
time to come.



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